博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法   总被引：5，自引：7，他引：5  

左其亭  李静  马军霞  吴泽宁  王薇 《干旱区地理》2004,27(3):361-366

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。  相似文献   

美国"阳光带"的崛起对中国西部城市化战略的启示   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王仲智  林炳耀 《世界地理研究》2004,13(2):40-45

美国西部开发以城市化为先导，中国西部大开发本质上也是西部城市化。西部大开发战略应以城市为中心组织与落实。本文通过透视美国“阳光带”城市崛起的历史，尤其是产业集群的成功经验，提出中国西部城市化战略实施中应将培育地方产业集群作为推动城市化的重要战略方式和地方重要的公共政策工具。  相似文献   

长江三角洲主要城市产业结构转换的综合评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈素青 《世界地理研究》2004,13(4):34-39,33

文章在对地区产业结构转换影响因素系统分析的基础上，采用定量分析方法，对长江三角洲15个主要城市的产业结构转换能力、产业转换速度、产业转换方向以及它们之间的关系进行探讨。研究表明：长江三角洲主要城市产业结构转换能力的区域差异明显，产业结构转换能力与区域经济发展所处阶段有很大的关系；产业结构转换能力、速度与经济发展水平呈正相关。  相似文献   

GPS广播星历参数拟合算法   总被引：25，自引：2，他引：25  

崔先强焦文海  贾小林尹豫疆 《测绘学院学报》2004,21(4):244-246

介绍了GPS广播星历参数的最小二乘估计方法。推导了相应的计算公式。计算结果表明。文中给出的公式是正确的，其拟合精度以用户距离误差(URE)示时，对预报轨道的损失小于1cm。  相似文献   

信息时代地图技术美的研究与实践   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

江南崔纪锋  陈四清夏丽华 《测绘学院学报》2004,21(4):298-301

通过分析现代地图表现形式及存在的问题，探讨了信息时代地图制图技术美的含义和地图技术美的表现形式。并在技术美创新理念指导下，对利用计算机技术和图形图像处理技术来改进地图符号设计，提高地图表现力进行了一些理论探讨和技术尝试．同时也得到了一些有益的启示。  相似文献   

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River     

LI Daofeng  TIAN Ying  LIU Changming  HAO Fanghua 《地理学报》2004,14(3):330-338

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.  相似文献   

Modeling Spatially and Temporally Complex Land‐Cover Change: The Case of Western Honduras*     

Darla K. Munroe  Jane Southworth  Catherine M. Tucker 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(4):544-559

This article presents an econometric analysis of land‐cover change in western Honduras. Ground‐truthed satellite image analysis indicates that between 1987 and 1996 net reforestation occurred in the 1,015‐km² study region. While some reforestation can be attributed to a 1987 ban on logging, the area of reforestation greatly exceeds that of previously clear‐cut areas. Further, new area was also deforested between 1987 and 1996. Thus, the observed land‐cover changes represent a complex mosaic of changing land‐use patterns across time and space. The analysis contributes to the literature on land‐cover change modeling in that: (1) it compares two econometric approaches to capture complex and often bidirectional changes in land cover from 1987 to 1996 as a function of agricultural suitability and transportation costs, and (2) it addresses techniques to identify and correct for spatial autocorrelation in a categorical regression framework.  相似文献   

In the Critical Zone: Geography at the U.S. Geological Survey     

William L. Graf 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(1):100-108

Geography is again becoming an integral part of the premier natural‐science agency of the federal government. Geographic research emphasizes the surface of the earth, a portion of the earth system that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defines as the “critical zone.” Although geography was part of the USGS from the creation of the agency, in recent years geography in the agency has largely been limited to topographic mapping. Recently, the USGS and an advisory committee of the National Research Council (NRC) reviewed the role of geography at the Survey. The committee's report, along with ongoing decision‐making in the federal government, is likely to reshape geography in the USGS. The newly defined USGS has a regional structure and four disciplines: geology, hydrology, biology, and geography. The NRC report emphasizes the need for the creation of a spatial database called the National Map to replace the existing series of paper topographic maps. The report also outlines the need for geographic research in geographic information science (GIScience), nature‐society connections, and bridging of science to decision‐making. The NRC report has been briefed throughout the USGS, in the federal executive branch, and in Congress. The changing role for geography in the USGS requires change in the agency culture, revised budgetary decisions, and the establishment of a long‐term core agenda for research. Academic geographers will need to prepare a new generation of geographers for participation in the USGS and similar agencies.  相似文献   

From Chicago to L.A. and Back Again: A Chicago‐Inspired Quantitative Analysis of Income Distribution in Montreal*     

Richard Shearmur  Mathieu Charron 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(1):109-126

In a recent issue of Urban Geography (2001) , a number of key players in the 1960s and 1970s school of quantitative urban geography (called Chicago II in this article) set out some of the approach's key methodological premises and assessed its influence in the wider arena of urban studies. At about the same time, the 1920s and 1930s Chicago School of urban sociology (called the Chicago School in this article) was being reassessed in France ( Huet 2000 ), and deconstructed in Los Angeles ( Dear 2001 ). In this article, we outline a selection of basic models of urban space proposed by the Chicago School and further elaborated by Chicago II. We then consider certain aspects of three important critiques: humanist/aesthetic, Marxist, and postmodern. We argue that none of these invalidates the Chicago II approach to the study of urban areas, and we demonstrate its resilience and usefulness by way of the empirical example of Montreal. Though the results are of interest in their own right, the principal purpose of the analysis is to illustrate the type of insight that a structured quantitative approach provides and the way this approach rests on a theoretical understanding of processes at work in cities. We conclude by arguing that the humanist and Marxist critiques shed important light upon the possibilities and limits of the Chicago II approach, but that the postmodern claim that the spatial development of urban areas is not structured by at least some general processes is inaccurate.  相似文献   

A Local Example of Land‐Use Change: Southern Illinois—1807, 1938, and 1993*     

Leslie A. Duram  Jon Bathgate  Christina Ray 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(1):127-140

This article provides an analysis of a wetland site in southern Illinois from presettlement to the present. The study area is part of the Cache River‐Cypress Creek Wetland, which has international importance, as recognized by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. Land‐cover data for 1807, 1938, and 1993 were created and analyzed with a geographic information system (GIS). Land‐use change by topographic setting (uplands, transitional, and bottomlands) and soil productivity was quantified and studied. Interviews with local experts informed this analysis. Results illustrate the complexity of environmental change and its driving forces. First, notable forest and swamp acreage was converted to cropland between 1807 and 1938 and, to a lesser degree, from 1938 to 1993. Second, there were land‐use variations by topographic region. Between 1807 and 1938, the largest transformation occurred in the uplands, with substantial acreage converted from forest to cropland. Between 1938 and 1993, however, agriculture decreased in the upland areas as hilly areas reverted to forest cover. At the same time, agriculture expanded in the bottomlands as this land was drained for farming. Third, there are interesting patterns within these categories of land‐use change, as soil productivity is an indicator of what lands were taken out of cropland and converted back to grassland and forest.  相似文献